The various scenarios anticipated by the end of the century change in the average temperature varies from higher to 10 ° C to its reduction on the current level. Usually operate as «most likely» average value of 2-3 ° C, while the average of the value does not become more reasonable. In fact, this forecast should take into account not only the basic processes in complex natural machine that determines the climate of our planet, but also scientific, technological and social achievements of mankind in the century ahead.
Do we have today, as a climate of Earth, and if not, to understand whether in the near future? All professionals in this field confidently give a negative answer to both questions. But can we predict the technological and social development of civilization in the next hundred years? Actually, what the time horizon of more or less real prediction? The answer is also quite evident. The most conservative and at the same time defining the industry a modern economy - energy, raw materials industry, heavy and chemical industries. Capital expenditure in these areas is so high that the equipment is almost always used to develop a full life - nearly 30 years. Consequently, industrial and energy companies, which are now being introduced into operation, will determine the technological potential of the world during the first third of a century. Given that all the other sectors (such as electronics and communications) evolve much more rapidly, more than 30 years and can not be peeped. As examples showing the price of a bold predictions often recall fears futurologists the end of the XIX century, predict that the streets of London will be loaded with manure, although the first cars have already appeared on the roads of England.
